鵵 ' ߴ ' ҾȰ Ÿ ִ.
: ܱ dz
ڹȯ() հ ġ ǿ " ̾"鼭 " ߴ ̾ ֽĽ忡 ĥ "̶ ٺô.
"(1392.55, 92 ) Ʒ ƴ "̶ " Ļ û ݸ ġ BoA μ ־ Ȳ ƴ϶ ִ "̶ мߴ.
ȯ ÷ڻ 嵵 "̱ ֿ IB ν 巯ν ſ븮ũ ȭ "̶ "ܱä ѱ ϱ "̶ ٺô. "ܱ ֽİ ä Ȱ 鵵 ȯ Ȯ ֽ ä ȭ Ѳ ϶ϴ Ʈ ༼ ȴ" ̴.
ѻ: ؼҴܰ, ħü ȭ
ѻ ̷ڿ μ "̱ ΰ νȭ ڱ "̶ " Ļ ó ڵ սǿ ڱݼ(Deleverage) ܱ "̶ мߴ.
μ "̹ · ũ ؼҵ "̶鼭 "ֽİ ε ϶ ڻȿ ħü ȭǴ ū " ߴ.
ڻ ǥ: 1200 Ϳ ؾ
ڻȸ ǥ "հ ġ · ణ ݽ Ҿ ̴ 鸮 ִ" "ݵϴ ڽǴ ̹ ص 1200 Ϳ ϴ ٶϴ" ߴ.
״ "߱ õ ̱ Ȳ ó ϶ ɼ " "߱ ѱ ѱ õ 鸱 "̶ ٺô.
(, Black Swan) ִ. ϶ Ҹ Ʈϸ Ư̴. ߰ߵDZ (Swan) Ͼ . Swan Ͼ () ƴ.
, ν ִ ʴ. ֿ ڿ 츮 ν ϰ ִ ǰ ִµ, 츮 ϱ ʴ ϴ 찡 ʴٴ ̴.
Ѹ ´ٰ ġ ʴ´
̱ ڹȸ Ż(Nassim Nicholas Taleb) "(Black Swan)" " Ͼ ٰ ͵鿡 ϴ ´" ߴ. 2001 Ͼ '9.11' ֱ ̾ 'Ӹ ' .
Ż '' 3 Ư ִٰ ִ. Ұɼ(unpredictable) (massive impacl) Ͼ ڿ μ ̶ ̴.
' ̷'̶ ִ. ξ ߰ؼ ٰ ؼ ذ ƴ϶ ̴. Ѹ ٸ ʴ Ǵ 찡 .
Ͻ ۵ ̱ IB νȭ ġα ̾. ⼭ ذ ƴ϶ ð . AIG 뿡 ִ ƴϸ, IB鵵 ̶ м̴.
ѱ ô ֿ '9 ⼳' ' Ī' ѱ 밨 Ű. ǿ ̱ θ ѱ ߸ ȴ. θ ū ִٴ ٽ ѹ ǻ ۿ .